{"available":true,"model_version":"predictiq_stack_v6","n_matches_evaluated":348,"accuracy":0.4741,"log_loss":1.0667,"brier_score":0.2148,"calibration":{"away":[{"n":40,"bin":"0.1-0.2","actual_rate":0.275,"predicted_avg":0.171},{"n":136,"bin":"0.2-0.3","actual_rate":0.25,"predicted_avg":0.253},{"n":114,"bin":"0.3-0.4","actual_rate":0.342,"predicted_avg":0.342},{"n":34,"bin":"0.4-0.5","actual_rate":0.382,"predicted_avg":0.454},{"n":22,"bin":"0.5-0.6","actual_rate":0.409,"predicted_avg":0.54},{"n":2,"bin":"0.6-0.7","actual_rate":0.5,"predicted_avg":0.646}],"draw":[{"n":3,"bin":"0.1-0.2","actual_rate":0.0,"predicted_avg":0.193},{"n":345,"bin":"0.2-0.3","actual_rate":0.238,"predicted_avg":0.25}],"home":[{"n":5,"bin":"0.1-0.2","actual_rate":0.6,"predicted_avg":0.182},{"n":37,"bin":"0.2-0.3","actual_rate":0.324,"predicted_avg":0.256},{"n":70,"bin":"0.3-0.4","actual_rate":0.371,"predicted_avg":0.362},{"n":140,"bin":"0.4-0.5","actual_rate":0.529,"predicted_avg":0.446},{"n":75,"bin":"0.5-0.6","actual_rate":0.453,"predicted_avg":0.546},{"n":21,"bin":"0.6-0.7","actual_rate":0.476,"predicted_avg":0.626}]},"ece_scores":{"away_ece":0.0294,"draw_ece":0.0142,"home_ece":0.0771},"last_evaluated":"2026-08-19T06:41:16.491502+00:00","methodology":"Every finished match's PRE-KICKOFF prediction is compared against the actual result. Calibration bins show, for predictions the model gave (say) 60-70% confidence to, what fraction actually happened - close to the bin's own range means the model's confidence is trustworthy, not just its picks."}