{"available":true,"model_version":"predictiq_stack_v7","n_matches_evaluated":4591,"accuracy":0.4548,"log_loss":1.1245,"brier_score":0.2121,"calibration":{"away":[{"n":27,"bin":"0.0-0.1","actual_rate":0.111,"predicted_avg":0.009},{"n":172,"bin":"0.1-0.2","actual_rate":0.227,"predicted_avg":0.17},{"n":2253,"bin":"0.2-0.3","actual_rate":0.25,"predicted_avg":0.254},{"n":922,"bin":"0.3-0.4","actual_rate":0.344,"predicted_avg":0.345},{"n":1038,"bin":"0.4-0.5","actual_rate":0.411,"predicted_avg":0.433},{"n":127,"bin":"0.5-0.6","actual_rate":0.488,"predicted_avg":0.542},{"n":23,"bin":"0.6-0.7","actual_rate":0.565,"predicted_avg":0.647},{"n":17,"bin":"0.7-0.8","actual_rate":0.647,"predicted_avg":0.761},{"n":12,"bin":"0.8-0.9","actual_rate":0.667,"predicted_avg":0.806}],"draw":[{"n":1,"bin":"0.0-0.1","actual_rate":0.0,"predicted_avg":0.0},{"n":63,"bin":"0.1-0.2","actual_rate":0.127,"predicted_avg":0.179},{"n":4252,"bin":"0.2-0.3","actual_rate":0.259,"predicted_avg":0.263},{"n":265,"bin":"0.3-0.4","actual_rate":0.34,"predicted_avg":0.371},{"n":10,"bin":"0.4-0.5","actual_rate":0.2,"predicted_avg":0.403}],"home":[{"n":32,"bin":"0.0-0.1","actual_rate":0.219,"predicted_avg":0.0},{"n":67,"bin":"0.1-0.2","actual_rate":0.224,"predicted_avg":0.168},{"n":649,"bin":"0.2-0.3","actual_rate":0.277,"predicted_avg":0.273},{"n":1098,"bin":"0.3-0.4","actual_rate":0.363,"predicted_avg":0.344},{"n":1635,"bin":"0.4-0.5","actual_rate":0.435,"predicted_avg":0.444},{"n":987,"bin":"0.5-0.6","actual_rate":0.564,"predicted_avg":0.518},{"n":98,"bin":"0.6-0.7","actual_rate":0.561,"predicted_avg":0.634},{"n":3,"bin":"0.7-0.8","actual_rate":1.0,"predicted_avg":0.763},{"n":21,"bin":"0.8-0.9","actual_rate":0.762,"predicted_avg":0.829},{"n":1,"bin":"0.9-1.0","actual_rate":1.0,"predicted_avg":1.0}]},"ece_scores":{"away_ece":0.0125,"draw_ece":0.0059,"home_ece":0.0226},"market_comparison":{"market_log_loss":0.9983,"market_brier_score":0.1986,"n_matches_with_odds":2765,"brier_edge_vs_market":-0.0135,"log_loss_edge_vs_market":-0.1262},"roi_summary":{"n_won":419,"win_rate":0.3256,"roi_percent":-6.71,"n_value_bets":1287,"total_staked":1287.0,"edge_threshold":0.03,"total_returned":1200.59},"last_evaluated":"2026-10-03T11:08:09.959894+00:00","methodology":"Every finished match's PRE-KICKOFF prediction is compared against the actual result. Calibration bins show, for predictions the model gave (say) 60-70% confidence to, what fraction actually happened - close to the bin's own range means the model's confidence is trustworthy, not just its picks. market_comparison scores the bookmaker's own de-vigged implied probabilities the same way, on the same matches, as a direct benchmark. roi_summary simulates flat $1 bets on fixtures where the model's probability beat the market's own implied probability by a threshold edge, settled at real (non-de-vigged) average bookmaker odds."}